Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers!Its been a great year in Forex and particularly the equity markets and we have much to be thankful for.
With a day off from work, we have time to kick back, spend some time with the family, and of course work on developing long-term profitable expert advisors!
I've been hard at work on a system i'm calling Forex Regression that is based on logic from Fish Forex commercial EA. Here's a few key stats to whet your appetite:
- System has profitable trades nearly 80% of the time!
- Ten-year back-test shows an average annual return of 15.6% with max drawdown of 19.8%
- System is up 19% for the year with only 10% drawdown!
Still, i'm not satisfied with the system in its current form and i'm looking for opportunities for improvement. Once i'm satisfied it it, i'll make it available at no charge to members of the million dollar trading room, and on my Yahoo group.
Check back for a review of Watukushay #3 (aka Kutichy) and enjoy the holiday!
That's Great,
ReplyDeleteSounds like you have a good system going Chris. It makes you feel quite good when you know you have created your own system and are trading it live with a confidence that it may generate a certain expected percentage every year (The confidence for me comes mainly from I know exactly how the system is suppose to work and I have 10 year back tests). One tip I may suggest to you is, time permitting, try adjusting your systems TP or SL by pulling it in so as to get it close to 1:1 reward to risk and see how the results are. Sometimes doing this, yes, decreases your accuracy, but may actually increase your profits.
Oddly enough, when you get to the point of trading your own system live, you start to learn more about it when you watch it trade live. You find that there are more tweaks and improvements you can make all the time. I wholly believe after having done this enough, you start to really create a valuable system.
Good luck Chris, and I can't wait to hear about more about Forex Regression.
JT
JT-
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment. I'm not trading it live yet, but its the best system i've been able to come up with on my own thus far.
Regarding the TP to SL ratio, I found through optimization that a ratio of TP = 2 to SL = 5.5 seems to produce stable results over the past 10 years. I included 2010 in the optimization so the year to date results are not much of an accomplishment since they are produced with hindsight.
Regarding the SL to TP ratio, I found when they set near 1:1, the results were not profitable. The 2:5 ratio came from back-testing and the fact the system comes out on top with this ratio is made possible by the high percentage of winning trades.
Thanks for the feedback, I appreciate it. I have some other cool stuff on the way, so check back later. Thanks,
Chris
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteGanesh-
ReplyDeleteI invited you to join the group. You should see an invitation in your e-mail. The group page is http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/fx-mon/.
I will try to delete your comment two so you e-mail address is not showing to all.
Thanks for the interest,
Chris
Dear Tcxmon,
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot. Received it and joined the group.
Ganesh
Forex trading is much more easier when its done by a forex robot and EA Builder allows you to create your own free forex robot.
ReplyDelete