Saturday, April 28, 2012

Meta-Trader - Birthday Candles

Welcome back Meta-Traders.

Happy Birthday to me, as your humble narrator turns 50 years old today.

The markets gave us something to celebrate this past week with my equity portfolio getting out to a new multi-year high.  At this point, I have exceeded the highs set last spring, but still have not bested the old high set back in 2008 prior to the meltdown and financial crisis.  But I'm not too far off that level based on what I can remember.

More important than money, I have my health, a great family, a good job and much to be thankful for.  People faced with their sudden, impending death have an experience of "your life flashing before your eyes." In those few seconds, you size up your entire life in an instant.  Looking back, I don't think I would do anything different. I may have under-acheived compared to some of my peers, but nobody likes a whiner. Now I'll step down from my meta physical soap box ..

AAPL was the one that got away this past week.  The skeptics are out in force on this stock and it traded down to the 560 area on Tuesday prior to release of earnings. On Tuesday, I was eying the 540 calls for about $32, or the 550 calls for about $26 or the $580 calls for about $10.  But my regular job took my attention and I did nothing. 

Earnings came out and they completely blew away even their own estimates by 20%!  Net income for the quarter was 11 Billion on on revenue of 39 Billion, up 94% from the same quarter last year!  Plus they added about 10 Billion in cash to the balance sheet with now $110 Billion in cash on the books.  Of course the shares rallied back up to the 610 level and any of those option positions would have doubled or better.

What's interesting to note is that while Revenues and Earnings are out to new all-time highs, but the shares price is not.  Clearly the skeptics don't believe the story and are betting they can't keep up the torrid growth rate.   From a trading perspective, I think we are almost certainly going to see a re-test of the $560 level before eventually moving higher.  There are opportunities to double your money in options trades on this stock nearly every week so take heed and profit!

As for what worked this week, I added to positions in 2 of my 3 favorites this past week. 

First, Medical Device company ICUI came out with good earnings and broke the $50 mark for the first time ever.  And the chart is flashing a mighty breakout, take a look above

Second I added to discount retailer Family Dollar (FDO) which is a bit farther along and is soon to join the 80-to-120 club discussed last week.

Finally, Forex continues to disappoint with every one of my Forex Accounts now in the red for the year.  Governments in Europe continue to topple one-by-one as voters express their discontent with the declining economic situation.  Plus also Spain and the UK economies are now back in recession.  Meanwhile, by comparison things are looking better in the US.  If only the EU could print money as effectively as our US Fed.  Sigh. The EU has become an economic and political morass and I suspect that's at least partially responsible for the poor showing in Forex.  

That's all for now.  Get out and enjoy your day and the coming week.

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