Saturday, October 8, 2011

Meta-Trader - Life, Love and Death

Welcome back, Meta-Traders.

Last week's drubbing in equity markets continued in earnest this week. On Monday, we sliced through the low of the recent range, taking out the lows of the year, and once again putting my open portfolio positions into the red. This was a classic trend continuation move and a confirmation that we were headed lower.

By Tuesday mid-day, I figured we had enough on the downside and decided to take a long position looking for a bounce. I picked Apple Computer since it was the day of the iPhone announcement, and figured with the stock off a recent high of $409 down to $375, it had been punished enough. So I picked up an October 350 call in each account at about $35. After a few wobbles, this position started to work out, and within an hour or so, the stock was at $380 and I was up about $300 in each account. I was shooting for about a 15-point target or about half of the recent $35 dollar downside range.

After lunch, the iPhone event started at 1PM EST. The stock started to wobble and gave back its gains. I watched nervously as the stock started to come apart down to $375, 372, 370. When it broke $370 to the downside, I knew I was in trouble and on the wrong side of this trade. So I bit the bullet and sold the 2 contracts not long after for about a $500 loss per contract or about $1000 loss across both accounts. This loss hurt and I was stung with this loss as well as the other losses for the better part of the next 2 days.

Watching AAPL stock later that day, within an hour or 2, it was $360 and had an intra-day low of $354! So my 5 point loss could have been a 20-point loss, had I not been quick to close it. As it turns out, there was much disappointment in the market that Apple had just released the iPhone 4s, and not a new iPhone 5 has many had expected. But it was a bad trade nonetheless and I learned a good lesson, don't trade the news, particularly when you don't know what its going to be!

As it turns out, I was right about the market, which made a new intra-day low on Tuesday, but closed higher, right at about the bottom of recent support. We rallied for the rest of the week which was a relief.

Wednesday evening brought the shocking news of the death of Apple co-founder Steve Jobs. Apple had a large influence on my life. I learned assembly language on an Apple II running the Motorola 6502 back in college in 1983. I sold Apple Mac hardware as a computer sales guy in the mid 1980's. And Apple stock has been my biggest portfolio winner of the past several years.

On top of all his accomplishments, was the perspective he brought in his commencement speech at Stanford University back in 2005 which you can view here. I highly recommend you take the 15 minutes to watch the speech. There's not a shred of rhetoric, just a few short lessons, live your life without fear, and love what you do.

Most important was a message to realize that death is a fate that awaits us all. "... All external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure just fall away in the face of death leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart."

This powerful message put my small losses in context. The world has lost a tech leader, visionary and extraordinary human being. Rest in Peace, Mr Jobs, you will be missed.

As for Automated Forex trading, we had a mixed week. The recent US Dollar strength peaked on Tuesday and reversed along with the equity markets. This led to losses in all of the COATL portfolios which tend to build up positions over time to benefit from moves which play our over weeks and months.

Atipaq Full Portfolio had 2 huge winners in AUDUSD and NZDUSD which took 5 days to run take profits. Unfortunately, half of those gains were given back on a long USDCHF trade which played out in only 5 hours.

Megadroid Live went on a small winning streak and traded every day this week which is unusual.

FX-Regression took a pounding early in the week, but came back with a series of winners.

All other systems were mixed to negative. Its also interesting to note that Teyacanani when out short EURUSD on Friday in a large move late in the European session. Strange to see that kind of activity so late on a Friday.

Also, I added the God's Gift ATR systems back into my Atinalla #4 portfolio last week. After many months of draw down, these systems are once again showing signs of life and took a few trades this week including a 150+ pip winner in GBP/USD. Daniel - I understand that adding and deleting systems based on recent performance is antithetical to everything Asirikuy stands for so I promise not to make a habit of it.

On the development side, FXDD is running a 5% deposit bonus promotion for the month of October for deposits of $5000 or more. So I will probably take advantage of that to fund my accounts in preparation for 2012.

That's all for now, enjoy your weekend.

2 comments:

  1. Hi Chris,

    Thank you for another great update :o) As far as removing/adding systems from portfolios. I am not against new ideas but if you want to do this I suggest you perform historical analysis for the past 10 years and see what the effect of removing systems after X draw down and re-adding them after X profit is. I assure you it's a quite useful exercise which will let you know about the long term consequences of any systematic strategy addition/removal :o) Keep up the great work!

    Best Regards,

    Daniel

    ReplyDelete
  2. Daniel-

    Thanks for reading and for the comment.

    Treating it strictly as a thought experiment, I would conclude that for systems which successfully recover from draw down, removing and re-adding them would nearly always result in less profit than sticking with them through the drawdown. This is because you would miss some of the profit that occurred in the gap between when you observed the profit, and when you decided to add it back in.

    On the other hand, for systems which start out negative, never recover and eventually go bust, its easy to see that you would be better off stopping trading at some point. Sometimes systems go bad because of broker, platform or any number of reasons that would not be accounted for in historical analysis. I understand this is why you publish 'Worst Case' scenarios for your systems.

    So I think of it as a form of "disaster insurance" in which I would rather give up a few points of profitability and avoid a system which goes straight into the hole an never comes back.

    In the end it comes down to conviction and the degree of confidence in the system. With back-testing and demo testing, we have plenty of opportunities to build confidence without risking real money.

    Thanks again and take care,

    Chris

    ReplyDelete