On the Forex side the screaming winner on the week was COATL EUR Centered Portfolio. This thing picked up about 18% on the week and is now up a stunning 48% since I started this demo back on February 27, 2011! Taking a look over at Asirikuy, there is one other live account running this system which started at about the same time. Unfortunately, my demo performance is not duplicated and the other account is up only about 1.2% over the same period. As this point, I can't tell if my account is wrong and i'm just lucky, or the other guys implementation is wrong. I suppose it could be broker dependency as well, but I hate to think a broker could make all that much difference. I think its going to take a review of Coatl, followed by a review of the settings and some back-testing before I get to the bottom of this one.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Meta-Trader - Bernanke Speaks
On the Forex side the screaming winner on the week was COATL EUR Centered Portfolio. This thing picked up about 18% on the week and is now up a stunning 48% since I started this demo back on February 27, 2011! Taking a look over at Asirikuy, there is one other live account running this system which started at about the same time. Unfortunately, my demo performance is not duplicated and the other account is up only about 1.2% over the same period. As this point, I can't tell if my account is wrong and i'm just lucky, or the other guys implementation is wrong. I suppose it could be broker dependency as well, but I hate to think a broker could make all that much difference. I think its going to take a review of Coatl, followed by a review of the settings and some back-testing before I get to the bottom of this one.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Meta-Trader - Sapaq Review
- 100K grows to 640K over a 10-year period which is nearly an 18.5% annual return
- Maximum drawdown is close to 10%
- Overall reward to risk ratio goes to 1.67 indicating the system makes $1.67 for every dollar risked
- Overall winners to losers ratio goes to 0.75 indicating the system still loses more often that it wins, but it’s much closer to even that the individual back-tests suggest
- The system has long periods of drawdown, as long as a year without reaching a new equity high
Friday, April 22, 2011
Meta-Trader - Equity breakout!
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Meta-Trader - Atinalla FE Review
In this post we will review Atinalla FE.
So what exactly is Atinalla FE and what is it's logic?
Watukushay FE takes its trading signals from the Wilder’s RSI indicator. RSI is simply the ratio of up movement to down movement over some period of time and is described here
There’s an additional bit of logic to close positions that goes as follows. Once a long position is in place, the RSI might fall below the entry level, say down to 50. Once the RSI then rises again to a level just under the original entry value, the position is exited. The logic here is that an uptrend is in place, and a pullback has occurred, and this up move in RSI is a resumption of the uptrend that allows the position to be closed at a profit.
An unscientific look at the back-test results, show that about 1/3 of the time, positions are closed using this alternate logic, and most of the time it is for a profit smaller than the original take profit value. Only occasionally does this alternate logic result in a loss.
The second of the 3 systems is based on the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) developed by Donald Lambert in the early 1980’s described here
The CCI is calculated as the difference between the typical price and its moving average, divided by the mean absolute deviation. CCI indicator values typically range between -100 and +100, but occasionally spikes to extreme values above +300 and below -300. It is these spikes that Atinalla FE uses to enter in the direction of the spike. In other words, on a spike above +300, the system will enter long. Once in a trade, the system will exit on a Take Profit and Stop Loss which are a fixed percentage of the 14-bar Average True Range. There is no other closing logic that I am aware of.
The last of the 3 systems is based on Bollinger Bands, developed by John Bollinger and described here. Bollinger Bands are calculated as an upper and lower band which are placed 2 standard deviations above and below a simple moving average of price. For long trades, the system will enter on a move of price above the upper band plus a fixed percentage of the 14-bar average true range. Short trades are entered on similar logic in the other direction.
Once a trade is placed, take profit and stop loss are a fixed percentage of the ATR, and similar to the CCI system, there is no additional closing logic.
I uploaded the 10-year backtest results for the system to my yahoo group at http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/fx-mon/.
I started trading Atinalla FE live back in January of 2011 and the results can be found here. These results seem consistent with the live results found in Asirikuy over the same period.
One definitely cool thing about this system is the User Interface. The above screen shot shows the UI which reveals the inner workings of all 3 sub-systems in different colors. Using the UI, it’s easy to see what each system is doing, in terms of triggers, stop loss and take profits as well as Profit and Loss thus far for each sub-system.
One thing I didn’t consider when I started trading this system live is that it’s not NFA compliant. Specifically FIFO rules require that once a position is entered, any further positions on the same pair in the same direction must be closed before the original position can be closed. This would clearly cause an issue if one of the systems enters and attempts to exit, but cannot because another system has come along and placed a trade. I’m currently trading this system live in a Forex.com account (which requires NFA compliance). Another option would be to trade it in an FXDD account which has a back-office solution which makes NFA compliance a non-issue.
Hopefully, after the next presidential election, Dodd-Frank can be re-worked to get rid of these ridiculous NFA restrictions.
Overall, Atinalla FE is a solid contribution to the world of Automated Forex Trading. If you are not already a subscriber to Asirikuy.com, give it a try – the price is right!
Friday, April 15, 2011
Meta-Trader - Freedom Tower Rising
Saturday, April 9, 2011
Meta-Trader - Best of Asirikuy
If you have followed my blog for any period of time, you know that I am a big fan of Daniel Fernandez and the work he has done over at http://www.asirikuy.com/.
The challenge for users both inside (and mostly outside) of Asirikuy is that of transparency. Put another way, it’s hard for to see what’s possible using the systems inside Asirikuy because Daniel does not reveal the performance of the systems. Nor does he allow members to disclose the results of any of the systems in any way to non-members. The only reporting I’m permitted to do is on my own accounts, both live and demo.
So my solution is the following.
I will follow the systems on Asirikuy, and apply my trader/investor instincts to ferret out the best systems and put them in out of 2 categories: Live or Demo. Live traded systems are those which pass my criteria and are worthy of risking real money. Demo accounts are those worthy of further evaluation or former live systems that have fallen into disfavor. Both categories of accounts will be followed here with full transparency and the way down the Dollars, Euro, Yen, Pound and Swissie.
What do I ask of you? Just continue to read and come back to see the results. Like Daniel, I believe that some things are more important than money.
Have a great week.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Meta-Trader - Rocking in the Euro Zone
Check back Sunday for an update and have a great weekend.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Meta-Trader - Fx-Regression Live vs Backtest Results
Here are the results of a back to live test consistency check on my own Expert Advisor called FX-Regression. Since the system back-tests fairly well, the goal is to determine if these back tests are somehow flawed and will not be reflected in actual trading.
For the period of January 12, 2011 (when I started trading live) through March 31, 2011, here are the results:
- Results of trades was plus $41.71 or about +4.7
- Total Net due to Interest roll was minus $3.19
- Net P&L was plus $38.52 or about +3.5%
The period does not include the trade opened on 3/31 and 4/1 which resulted in a loss and put the account back into the negative. Attempts to reconcile the actual and live trades ran into these challenges:
- Back tests run on Forex.com showed a high number of chart mismatch errors, so the results had to be discarded
- Back tests were derived from Alpari US instead
- We had a clock change due to daylight savings. For live trading, I changed the start time for the trade to keep the start time consistent with US Eastern time, caused a shift in start time on the server that was not properly reflected in the back test.
Overall, the back tests showed the account down $60 or minus 6% for the test period. A detailed comparison of the trades for each symbol showed the following:
- EUR/USD took 40 live trades an about 30 of them were consistent the back test
- USD/CHF took 29 live trades and only 12 were consistent with the back test
- USD/CAD took 24 live trades and only 9 were constent with the back test
For cases where the live trading and back test didn't check out, we saw nearly every possible situation:
- Profits in live trading that showed as losses in the back test
- Profits in live trading that were missing altogether from the back test
- Losses in live trading showing as profits in the back test
- Losses in live trading that were missing altogether from the back test
Conclusions are difficult to come by with such a jumble of data. The fact that I got the closest results with EUR/USD show the spread-senstive nature of this trading system. Back tests used a fixed spread of 2 pips for EUR/USD, 3.5 for USD/CHF and 5.0 for USD/CAD set with the Asirikuy back test setting program. Differences between these values would cause the exact symptoms were are seeing:Overall conclusion is that back tests with this system bear at best a sketchy resemblance with live test results. Larger SP and TL values would reduce the size of the error cases not by eliminating the underlying problems - but by reducing the number of times they occur. Actual trading results - at least for the test period - were better that back test results. Whether this conclusion pans out for the rest of the year remains to be seen.
Have a great week all.Saturday, April 2, 2011
Meta-Trader - Out like a Lion
The first quarter 2011 came to a close this week. On the weather front, the spring lamb still hasn't arrived and the winter lion still remains well in charge. With pool season a mere 6 weeks away, spring and summer better get a get a move on!
Global equity markets continued their gravity defying climb. With a healthy dose of end-of-month and end-of-quarter window dressing, many stocks recovered nicely from their March 16th lows and ralled back nicely. As is stands now, the S&P 500 is just about 1% off the highs set back on Feb 18th.
The fly in the ointment of the global economic recovery continues to be risking energy prices. Crude oil prices got out to a 30-month high and was up nearly 2.5% for the week and up 27% from a year ago. I'm holding a small amount of ETF USO as an energy price hedge but overall i'm underinvested in energy.
My week in currencies was less than spectacular. I reversed my short in USD/JPY and went long on Sunday evening. I took a small profit on the long rather than letting it run which was clearly a mistake since I could have picked up abou 250 pips had I just stuck with it. Also, I manually closed out some losing trades in Sunday gap trader DCT. So overall, I was not in good trading form with this account and as a result Megadroid Live lost about on half of 1% on the week.
As for the robots, the week's winner was Atipaq Full Portfolio which picked up about 2.5% on the week. Even better, it went out with about 318 pips in open profits on a trio of NZD/USD long trades!
Every other live acount was down so let's get through them quickly.
Atinalla No1 Live lost about 1% for the week but went out long EUR/USD with an open profit of about 75 pips.
FX-Regression sliced through its recent profits losing about 4% for the week and went out down -1.77% year to date. Now that the quarter is over, I need to do a live / back-test consistency check. Perhaps I can get that out tomorrow.
Atinalla FE was idle for the week.
Atinalla No3 lost about 1.8% on the week, but went into the weekend with 74 pips in open profits.
Atinalla No4 lost about 0.8% for the week and seems doomed to continue to lose money.
Demo account COATL EUR Centered Portfolio but went out with about -451 pips in open losses.
Finally a quick note to my friend JT since his blog no longer accepts comments. The Zulu platform encourages unsound trading tactics and all the newbie users are drawn to these signal providers like bees to honey. Eventually, the provider goes off the cliff and takes down all the newbie users and takes away their money. I should know since I was once one of them.
That's it for now. Enjoy your weekend and get some rest.