Welcome back Forex Traders.Let's take a look at 10-year back-test results for the God's Gift ATR system.
Daniel Fernandex over at Asirikuy released new versions of these systems last week with a number of improvements including better error handling, faster backtests and re-worked for consistentcy with DF's coding standards. This was a big help because we could never get a clean backtest with the prior versions of these systems.
The graph on the left shows a 10-year back test for GBP/USD with a risk level=3. Over the 10-year period, a 100K account grew to $682,846 which comes to about a 19.6% on an annualized basis. Even better than that, the maximum drawdown is only about -11.2%.
EUR/USD did even better and a 100K account grew to $793,946 which comes to about a 21.3% annualized return. The maximum drawdown on that account came t0 -14.3 also not that bad. So these are clearly long term profitable systems. The plan is to include this in my robot's portfolio for 2011 and allocate 10% of my funds to each system. So together God's Gift's will be 20% of my portfolio.
I uploaded the backtest statements to my Yahoo group at http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/fx-mon/. If you want to join, drop me a private message at http://twitter.com/tcxmon and i'll add you to the list.
Sweet,
ReplyDeleteIt is nice to see a good back test of GG. It looks about right for some realistic long term profitable results. I am guessing if you up'ed the risk to 4 you may get a max DD of around 20 something, and get a boost in average yearly profit. I know with Mover3 if I kick it up from 2% to 2.5% risk I can get a boost of about 7 to 8 % yearly gain putting average at about 27% a year and increase my Max DD a few % points to put it at 17.4%. With a setting at 3%, my max DD goes to 20.4% and my average yearly profit goes to... I did not calculate yet but the 10K account over 10 1/2 years added, I think it was 70K more on a 10K account, I can't remember(probably another 7 to 8%). Been too busy with the 2% and 2.5% risk setting.
To say the least I think GG will be going into my portfolio next year. I still would like the new version... I already paid $20 for it, is it worth paying another 30 something more, plus $7 a month for seeing the backtests?... I suppose if I did that I would get much more than just GG...
I am currently forward demo testing Mover3 to make sure it is trading as intended. I think I will give it a month or so and then put it live in an account with a 1% risk setting to make sure it is working correctly live, then boost it to 2.5 or 3% risk. I am still trying to find time to do all this and in addition do some final tweaks. Going forward with 3 EA methods that look to possibly pull 20% to 40% a year is going to be fun. I think it is a good diverse combination; Tiger Tail ($700 account), Mover3($1K account) and Gods Gift($1K account) (All on EUR/USD). I am hoping I can get a gain of $540 to $810 on combined accounts. (<-setting some goals here) Additionally, I hope to find more EA's I trust to throw in the mix. If all goes well in 2011, I will increase the account sizes and hopefully start my real success in Forex trading.
Thanks for the post Chris. It is always fun having a friend joining in the experience with you.
JT
Hi JT,
ReplyDeleteYou might want to read my reply to your comment in the last post,
Daniel
JT-
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comments.
Your Tiger Tail and Mover3 EA's look pretty interesting. Even if you don't want to reveal the logic, perhaps an mt4stats or fxbook review of some trades would give us soem clues?
Sometimes you can gather key items of the logic from statements, so understand your reluctance to do so. In any case, they seem like pretty solid systems, so at least blogging about their weekly or monthly performance might be helpful.
Daniel-
Your comments and readership are always welcome.
Thanks guys,
Chris
Hey, I just wanted to ask you what were the settings you used for the latest GG in this post? I am testing this on FXDD with 5 digit broker. I changed risk to 3 and turned on mode for testing (testing=2). Did you do anything else? I only ask because it seems I am getting different results than you again. The only other thing I can think of is I did not have trailing stops turned on.
ReplyDeleteThanks
JT
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