Here is a quick look at fib targets for PANW. The first target is the 161.8% line at 102.88
This trade started out as a condor into earnings. I sold the 82/84 95/97 condor on Tuesday for a credit of 0.72 and a max loss of 1.28. The stock cooperated and held below the short strike at 95 in the pre-market Wednesday and tested it briefly during regular market hours then pulled back. Everything looked good for the stock to close the week out between 84 and 95 for a max profit.
At about 10 AM the stock started running and was soon at the 95 level and threatening to put my trade underwater. It kept going and I scrambled to close the 95 short call at a limit of 2.6 for a net loss of 1.88 - greater than my original max loss, but I was still long the 97 call. I ended up closing the long 97 call for a credit of 1.05 lowering my loss to a mere 0.11 not counting commissions.
Realizing I had a potential runner, I bought some stock in my other accounts as it crossed 96 in the 96.25 area. The stock did nothing but run to the upside and nearly broke $100 before pulling back. I ended up closing the position out in the high 98's when it failed to break 100. Overall I took just over 2 points out of PANW. This was a classic case of an earnings trade gone bad, but turned out to be a winner anyway - another case of Lemons into Lemonaide.
I expect PANW to continue to the upside, but I'm not going to consider any new longs until it returns to the breakout point at 92.70.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
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