Welcome back Meta-Traders.We started to see the downside of politicial instability in the Middle East here in the USA. Gasoline prices had the highest-ever one week spike gaining between 5% and 8% in a few short days. This fed fears that the fragile global enconomic recovery would sputter.
Most disconcerting was a sagging US Dollar which usually catches a bid when risk comes off. USD lost just over 1% on the week as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY) and about 1.6% versus the EUR. These developments leant some credence to the perma-bears which have been preaching food riots, hyper-inflation, and general social breakdown for quite some time.
Equities continued last week's slide and caused me to wash out the big three tech positions (Apple, Amazon and Netflix) early in the week. I stayed out of these 3 and missed out on a sizable rally on Thursday but made out okay on the rest of my positions. I re-entered one half of Netflix on Friday and added to a monster rally in health-care cost-containment play HMSY which broke out on Friday in parabolic fashion. I'll be watching AAPL closely for a breakout of the $365 area to reload on the long side.
On the Forex Robots front, it was drawdown pretty much across the board.
Leader Atinalla #1 Live pealed off about 7% for the week on a choppy USD market full of head-fakes and false breakouts.
Next up was Atinalla #3 Live which gave back about 3% on the week, but went out with a decent open profit in a long GBP/USD trade.
My own EA Fx-Regression lost about 3% for the week and remains down about -3.6% for the year. I entered a short position in USD/CAD on a price spike early it the week which I closed out later in the week for a 10-pip profit plus a few cents rollover interest.
I've been watching the USD/CAD and its clear its been a major downtrend for some time. I closed the position since this account is pretty much for FX-Regression, and i'm going to use the Megadroid Live account for further fundamental trading.
An interesting thing occured to me regarding the Carry Trade. Currency should be as simple as just positioning yourself of the right side of the swap and collecting the daily interest. But its not, of course and why? Because those on the collecting side of the swap are punished by adverse price moves, intended to shake the big money out of the hands of the carry traders, and into the hands of the brokers.
What does this mean from a trading perspective? It means pick a direction and wait for a price spike adverse the primary trend, and put on a very small position in favor of trend resumption. I'll be looking for opportunities in USD/CAD this coming week.
Atinalla FE Live missed out out on some trades in my live account due to "Trading Disabled - Server Issue." Need to look at the Asirikuy forum for that.
Atipaq Full Portfolio had a very interesting week. At one point it was down -5%, then later in the week up +5%, and finally settled up +1.09% in open trades. With breakout system Atipaq running on 6 pairs, there's a lot going on in this account. For a refresher, check out my review of Atipaq here.
Atinalla #4 SM Live had a lackluster week and lost about 1%.
New comer Coatl EUR Centered Portfolio had a good week picking up about 4% in closed trades. It went out with a little over 1% in open losses, so we'll see what happens. This system deserves an entire blog post to figure out everything that's going on. The way things, are going, I may not get to it until summer vacation.
On a final note, CNBC launched a new currency-only half hour weekly show called Money in Motion. Check your local listings. I'll be adding this to my mix of daily recording for later playback.
My current lineup is:
- Nightly business report - PBS
- News Hour - PBS
- Mad Money - CNBC
- Fast Money - CNBC
- Options Action - CNBC
Take care all and have a great week!
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