Welcome back Meta-Traders.God's Gift GBP/USD had a break-away performance picking up 83 pips on the week and is now up a solid 32.7% for the year!
God's Gift EUR/USD had a less spectacular performance picking up 5 pips, but remains up a respectable 26.3% for the year.
I'm a bit embarrassed to point out that I have been running the God's Gift 7c version that came with Daniel's Fernandez's e-book back in December of 2009 instead of the God's Gift ATR which was also included in the e-book.
The ATR version is modified to adjust the lot size, take profits and stop losses according to the Average True Range of the pair. JT asked in a comment which is better so I set out to find the answer.
I emailed Daniel about the differences in behavior of the EA's and he pointed out that they are so different that it wasn't worth comparing the results. So I started testing the latest GodsGiftATR from Asirikuy in an attempt to try and replicate solid results i've seen year to date with the 7c version.
After a few days of frustration, I was finally able to sort out the differences. If I set the Orders_ATR variable to false, I can see results from GodsGiftATR which are proportional to my year to date demo results with the 7c version.
The differences year to date are significant as shown in this table on the left. I e-mailed Daniel once again and he pointed out that the fixed TP and SL values are going to differ with the ATR based values. That's makes sense, i'm just trying to figure out which settings make more money. I'll do a 10-year back test and let you all know the results.
ScalperX was quiet for most of the week, picking up 1 pip on Monday then was idle Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday it came alive and picked up 33 pips in 4 sell trades. This represents about 3% of the account which is pretty impressive in light of my 1% per week goal. Overall, ScalperX is now up 12.5% since I started it live back on 4/19/2010!
Finally, It was a quiet week for Megadroid Live with no trades. Megadroid Demo picked up 11 pips on Thursday.
Things were quiet in terms of the Megadroid multi-broker challenge with no trades from IamFX. Megadroid FXCM picked up 10-pips but the lot size was doubled due to "recovery mode" from its initial drawdown. This trade put Megadroid FXCM into the black for the first time showing that this robot can make money, even with a hostile broker! IamFX is still winning the Megadroid multi-broker challenge by a wide margin, however.
Meanwhile, i'm still on the hunt for 2 more experts to run starting in 2011. So far 3 of the 5 will be Megadroid, ScalperX, God's Gift (EUR and GBP). I have to get cracking and evaluate the rest of the robot's on Asirikuy as well.
Thanks all for now, enjoy your weekend.
Hello Chris,
ReplyDeleteThank you very much for the update :o) I see that you haven't understood very well what I was pointing out on the emails I sent you - probably I didn't explain myself well enough. The problem of your tests of the God's gift ATR is that your comparison does NOT make sense because you are comparing an ATR based TP, TL and SL of 50% of the ATR (which are the default setting and NOT the ones used in Asirikuy live accounts) with the default fixed TP, SL and TL values of the EA.
So the comparisons do not make sense since not even the ratios of the ATR based exits and the fixed SL, TP and TL values match. So in fact it is like running a backtest with a 1:1:1 TP:SL:TL ratio and another with a 15:7:3 ratio, results are bound to be extremely different just because of the general difference in ratio between SL, TP and TL values, regardless of the fact that you are or are not using ATR adjusted orders.
In fact if you run a backtest for the year with fixed TP, SL and TL values in a 1:1:1 ratio you will also find profitability to be very small.In order to know the true effect of the ATR order adjustments you MUST use percentages of SL, TP and TL values that through all the trades during the testing period have IN AVERAGE the same values as the fixed parameters you would be using to compare.
Moreover the default criteria for the EA is optimized when using fixed pips but the default ATR criteria is NOT since it is merely 50:50:50 (SL:TP:TL) which - as I have pointed before - are NOT the values used on the Asirikuy tests.
I hope that I have now explained the point better ! :o) Please take GREAT care when doing these tests and drawing conclusions since adequate comparisons MUST be made. The difference in profitability you have seen is mainly due to the differences in the SL:TP:TL ratios and NOT due to the fact that the ATR Order adjustment is disabled/enabled.
I look forward to your future posts :o) thanks again for your emails and posts !
Best Regards,
Daniel
PS : By the way, next week I will be releasing an Asirikuy video showing you how to fix the spreads so that you can backtest during the weekend (or with whatever spread to want to set).
Daniel-
ReplyDeleteAs I mentioned in the mail - I figured it out. I've been testing both EA's with all the default settings when I should have been using the recommended settings from your web site.
It might make sense to code the recommended defaults for each pair into the EA. This will keep others from making the same mistake.
Looking forward to checking out the 1 year and 10-year results for these settings.
Thanks for all your support!
Chris
Hello Chris,
ReplyDeleteThank you for your reply and email :o) I understand the confusion and I will certainly add a note so that we can avoid this misunderstanding in the future. Since systems are regularly used on more than one instrument with many different settings a warning about this is bound to be useful.
I am also looking forward to your results with these settings on 1 and 10 years. You're welcome for the support, I do my best to provide the best possible service to all Asirikuy members.
Thanks again for the reply and emails !
Best Regards,
Daniel
PS : You should turn comment moderation on as you are getting spammed by affiliate marketers on some of your older posts. :o)
Thanks for the post. Yes... I actually got some time to catch up on a few things... one of them being checking in on my forex buddies blogs, Steve, Daniel, and Chris at past midnight of all things :). It's always fun to see how you guys are doing.
ReplyDeleteI have to admit I am already interested in the 7c version of Gods gift and using it live based on your results. Who could look down on over a possible 30% for the year and say nay... I should do some back tests on the ATR version myself if I get some time. Right now I am working on my mover3 of which seems to be doing poorly going demo forward tests. It almost seems as if the EA is getting in too late and getting kicked out on basic daily fluctuation. Need to spend many more hours evaluating...
I suppose I am still a bit interested in Megadroid. It does appear though that you need the right combination of broker and settings. I am still curious to see what happens if you get a couple of bad ones in a row though, maybe 3 in a row. But in all it appears to be making steady trades and if there are brokers out there that do what they can to keep megadroid from working at full capacity, then megadroid must be doing something right to warrant such efforts.
At any rate talk to you later and good luck in your testing.
JT
JT-
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comments. Megadroid seems to be pretty consistent, even on a lousy broker such as FXCM. The fly in the ointment with Megadroid is the fact that it doubles its lot size after a loss. Therefore a string of 3-4 losses would hit the account pretty hard. Fortunately, it hasn't happened in the 6 months or so i've been following the EA - which isn't alot of time. So we'll see.
Meanwhile, Stevetrade seems to be onto something big with his Behemoth system. He's about 1000 miles ahead of me, oh well. Seems i'm better off buying someone else's car than building my own.
Anyway, thanks for the comment and take it easy,
Chris
I have been keeping an eye on Steve's Behemoth. His back tests look good, though I find the trading on the 5 minute, I think it was, might be a little bad for the back test results, which he notices as well and is why he is moving to live testing so quickly. I think he has run into an issue already, but is working to correct that and go forward. If he has something really good there, it will mean good results for him and anyone he sets up through a 3rd party or account management means. I can't wait to see what happens.
ReplyDeleteIn regards to building your own car so to speak... It does take some time in building your own system. If you note I am not sure Steve or Daniel have kids to keep track of and support, so time may be more permitting for them to spend hours on EA's and such. What time I have had I have been putting towards evaluating movement and trying to tie in volatility to that movement. Even when the market is ranging on the daily, it has its moves on the hourly. Capturing when the movement is intense enough to get in with regards to volatility has been a tough one. Expecting the intensity to continue or start to fissile out is where I have been trying to find the pips...
Anyway, I suppose making your system and using another can be pretty fun. Daniel, in one of his recent posts, made a comment about knowing your system really well. I suppose for me, you know the system well if you coded it. I suppose that won't keep me from using a really good one someone else has created though.
JT
Good-Afternoon. I came across your blog and would like to discuss this Ea nd your findings. I am in process of experimenting and recreating this Ea in MT5. When you have time please shoot me an email.
ReplyDelete@ forextrader5@outlook.com
ReplyDelete