Welcome back Forex Robot Fans.Scalper X has a breakout week and picked up over 4% on the week and is now up 18% for the year since starting it live back on 4/29/2010.
Watching it trade on Wednesday I noticed that it profits from both sides of trading the same pair. After a trade in one direction, it sometimes puts on a trade in the opposite direction on the same pair just before it closes the original.
When this works it has the effect of "sudden vehicle acceleration." Take a look at the statement and pay close attention to Wednesday's trades where it picked up 4% of the account by trading the same pair in 2 opposite directions within a 4-hour period. I also impressed with this robot's ability to deal with loosing trades which we saw on Monday and quickly recovered.
Scalper X was upstaged by God's Gift EUR/USD and God's Gift GBP/USD which picked up 126 pips and 79 pips respectively for the week. These robots are on an absolute tear and at one point this past week, GG GBP was up 43% for the year before it gave back some profits with a 70-pip loss on Friday. GG EUR is now up 34.3% for the year and GG GBP is up 34.7% year to date.
These robots are doing so well in demo, i'm twitching to get them on a live account. I need to get started opening and funding some more accounts to get to my goal of $10,000 under managament as of the start of 2011.
I have yet to reconcile the God's Gift results with with the God's Gift ATR from Asirikuy. The easiest comparison I could find from Asirikuy (10% risk per trade) is up 18% total since opening back in March of 2009. That alone tells you the systems aren't really comparable and as Daniel points out, its an apples and oranges comparison. Suffice it to say that these results will vary from God's Gift ATR with the recommended settings.
Megadroid Live and Megadroid Demo were on the bench this week and didn't field a single trade. This was a bit of a dissappointment given the favorable price action in EUR/USD. The Megadroid Multi-Broker challenge was a yawner also with 8 pips gained by MD FXCM and 4 pips gained by MD IamFX.
Finally, I started testing a new system today (call it Scalper Q?) that utterly blows away every other system I have tested on EUR/USD on a 10-year basis. I've started a forward test on a demo account and we'll see how it pans out before I give you the low down.
For those of you in North America, this the sweet spot of the summer, so enjoy it and i'll see you back next week.
Hello Chris,
ReplyDeleteThank you for the update :o) Just a small correction to tell you that the Asirikuy account you mention risks about 1% and not 10% per trade. Risking 10% it would have been up more than 180%.
I would also like to warn you about your current tendency towards scalpers. Bear in mind that simulations for these systems are not reliable and you can be entering very dangerous territory since you may start trading systems with very unfavorable risk to reward ratios that can turn your accounts to dust within a consecutive loss run. Don't let yourself get greedy Chris, I have seen several people go down this road and end it up in tears.
Remember that having accurate draw down and profit targets is a must and that the errors in evaluation scalpers have in the long term are VERY large. What makes them particularly dangerous is their tendency to have long profitable periods and then sharp periods of very bad draw down. I just wanted to tell you my point of view from my experience and that of many others I have been in contact with through the years, scalpers can be a dangerous game since their actual long term risk is a guess ( many times a pretty crappy one).
I know it is easy to get seduced by what seem to be extremely profitable backtests but I warn you, many times this is just a mirage that will cost you a ton of money in live trading. I know someone who forward tested a scalper for about 6 months, then went live and wiped the account in 2, 10K down the drain. So accurate evaluation across statistically relevant periods of time of more than 5 years is not a luxury it is vital for long term survival.
I just thought I would warn you about this and hopefully you will take my advice :o) However just be VERY aware that you are using systems that have backtests that cannot be trusted that can surprise you in the long term. Are you willing to make this an option ?
Thanks again for a great update Chris :o) I will keep on visiting your blog every week,
Best Regards,
Daniel
Hey Chris,
ReplyDeleteI know a guy that posted as anonymous on my blog and can't post on yours. Fredrik is interested in Megadroid. I suppose the questions he may have are, where to get it, cost, possible best broker to set up with, and any settings he may have to tweak to get it to work well. I mentioned it is a martingale strategy so I think he knows the risk there.
I thought I would relay the message.
JT
Daniel has made some interesting points here (again) Chris, and I'm wondering if there is a way to test the scalpers using Dukascopy data, which appears to offer tick data rather than 1 minute data.
ReplyDeletehttp://eareview.net/tick-data
Getting a significant amount of tick data appears to be time consuming, and the free data only goes back a few years (April 2007). However that should be enough for a definitive test of the scalpers that you are testing, and could be a big time saver going forward.
Perhaps Daniel could weigh in on the positive/negatives of using Dukascopy tick data. Thanks!
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ReplyDelete