Megadroid Pro - Back-test results

Welcome back Meta-Traders.

As promised, here are the 10-year back test results for Megadroid Pro. I got Megadroid Pro as a bonus with the purchase of Forex Maximizer. MD Pro trades the original EUR/USD as well as EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF and USD/CHF on an H1 timeframe.

The tests use all the robot default settings, the most important of which is risk, which is set to 0.1. This is the risk value I use for my live account with Megadroid and I believe is safe for solid growth with minimal chance of blowing up the account.

Looking at the drawdowns, its not difficult to see that a risk setting of 0.20 would nearly blow out the account in some years. Anybody trading this robot with risk of 0.3 is asking for trouble.

As you can see on the left, EUR/USD had 9 straight winning years with profit to drawdown in the 7 to 1 range. That's a pretty awesome result and I don't know of many robots with that type of performance.

The only fly in the ointment is the 2010 year to date performance which is down almost 25%. This result alone shows that this robot is not the same thing as the original Megadroid since its up year to date in my other accounts.

EUR/GBP did not test as well with 2 losing years of the past 9. Drawdowns were higher than profits in a lot of those years as well. Results from 2003 and 2004 were spectacular, its almost like the accelerator got stuck on the money printing machine. I doubt these results are possible in the current environment and its possible that the very presence of the robots in this market would reduce its profitability.

EUR/GBP results were equally wierd with 2 of 9 loosing years and high drawdowns to profits in the past few years. Again, things went haywire is 2003 and 2004 which are obviously skewing the 10-year average profit to the upside.

USD/CHF were the best of any of the pairs with an almost 63 to 1 profit to drawdown ratio.

In summary, this is a great looking robot with lousy year to date results. What's behind the performance or lack thereof?

I think the answer is EAKAIN.

It was widely rumored that EAKAIN was a rip off of Megadroid Pro and expanded to a few additional pairs. EAKAIN had a spectacular performance in 2009 and early 2010, but has been in a steady down-trend since then. Also, the EAKAIN code itself was widely leaked by a blogger, from the publishers own web site and therefore a large number of traders got their hands on it for much less than the $579 asking price. As a result, it became quickly overused and failed en mass.

Does that mean that the system is bad forever? Will traders loose their patience and go back to other robots and will this one and perhaps EAKAIN become profitable again? Is it possible that the year-to-date lousy performance of Megadroid Pro is an abberation and should be bought instead of dismissed?

As always, we'll find out over time and observation. So as of today, i'm following MD-Pro in a demo account and will be following it going forward.

Have a great day.