Welcome back Meta-Traders.A while back, I back-tested the God's Gift EA's provided by Daniel Fernandez as part of his e-book on Automated Forex Trading found here. I didn't blog about it because I thought in some way I would be infringing since Daniel offers a paid web site where he monitors performance of his robots.
But I figure since I already sprung the $18.95 for his e-book, why not share the results? All publicity is positive right? Well, its almost-always positive, but I do I firmly believe that if you don't have anything positive to say, don't say anything at all. Besides, where else can you get a long-term profitable EA for less than 20 bucks?
Anyway, the results are good against GBP/USD and the the system averaged 30% a year for the last 10 years with only one loosing year. Drawdown averaged about 26% and was less than the profit for most years in the test. Starting in the year 2000, a $1000 account would have grown to about $3,700 after 10 years which averages out to about 10% a year. Also, God's Gift GBP/USD is up for the year in forward demo testing as you can see in the upper-right hand corner of this blog.
EUR/USD didn't trade quite as well, and was down 2 of the last 10 year as well as being down for this year. Profit averaged about 23% for the 10-year period while drawdown came in at about 27%.I tested it against USD/JPY as well and proft averaged only 2% with a 28% drawdown. I started testing against USD/CAD but stopped after 5 straight loosing years.
Its possible the take-profit and stop losses need to be optimized. Doing that, I would suggest optimizing over a portion of the data (say the first 2 years) then running the best settings against the remainder of the data. That would be more realistic than optimizing against the entire data set then running with that since it would be a classic case of 20/20 hindsight.
In any case, God's Gift does appear to be a profitable long-term Expert Advisor, particularly against GBP/USD.
Cheers and check back tomorrow for my weekly update on Forex Robots.
Hello Chris,
ReplyDeleteThank you for posting these results :o) I have no problem with you showing this :o). It is worth noting that the GBP/USD has already had one year of live testing in asirikuy and the EUR/USD and USD/JPY accounts will have their one year anniversary next month. Overall I can say that there is very good back/live testing consistency and that the results we are getting are in-line with what we expect.
As you say, the God's Gift ATR is quiet flexible and changes depending on the settings, indeed greatly affecting the profitability of the EA. Particularly the exit criteria of the EA has a big effect over the profits and draw down levels reached. Other pairs besides those mentioned are not profitable with the EA, however I am working on that and we may see some interesting results in the near future ;o)
I would also encourage you to look at watukushay FE which is completely freely available (http://watukushayfe.blogspot.com) and has profit/risk levels similar or superior to this trading system.
It is also worth noting that Asirikuy is not merely a place to monitor system performance or get the trading systems I have coded. It is a place to get knowledge about automated trading systems and achieve long term profitability through an in-depth understanding of the subject.
Thanks again for your post and your comments on my blog Chris :o)
Best Regards,
Daniel Fernandez
Daniel-
ReplyDeleteGreat, thanks for the information and for your comments as well!
Chris
Well... round about every blog posts online don't have much originality as I found on yours.. Just keep updating much useful information so that reader like me would come back over and over again.
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