CBPO - New Highs

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all of my loyal blog readers.

With this post, one of my long-term favorites, China Biologics (CBPO) has decisively broken out to new all-time highs.

Recall that I have been in and out of this stock and took profits at the older 423.2% line at about the 120 level.  For a prior look at the FibLines, see my prior post here.

With this post, CBPO has sold off from the 120 level, then staged a come all the way to the old high at about 125, paused, hesitated, then finally broke out to a new all-time high.

The chart on the top left shows my new interpretation with wave 1 starting at 61.91 on 12/14/2014 and ending at 101.07 on 4/16/2015.

Based on that interpretation, we had a nice deflection off the of 161% line at about 125.24 which found support at the next lower orange line.  Then it moved sideways for a week or so before heading out into new all-time high territory.  Note however that the stock is currently sitting as resistance at the next higher level orange line.  At this point, I will avoid a new long-side entry until we can get a pullback preferably to the 161% line in the 125 area.

This example shows how you can structure longer-term trading decisions around the FibLines:

• Gives you an overall sense of direction, up in this case
• Puts the price action into 1 of 4 categories (anywhere between 0, 100, 161.8, 261.8 and 423.6. In this case we have just exceeded 161.8 and waiting for a pullback to the breakout point at the 161.8.
• Prevents you from entering when the chart look absolutely fantastic which can sometimes be the worst possible time to act. I have made this mistake more than once.

Anyway, this new interpretation will be included in my next release of the FibLines indicator due out in early 2016.

Enjoy your holiday season.

Fiblines New Look

Welcome back traders.

I am experimenting with some new looks for the Fib Lines indicator and I have settled on what you see to the left.  I changed the color of the secondary lines from green to orange and the 3rd level lines are left unchanged at a dark gray.

The idea here is to follow the visible light spectrum from red (most likely to raise your blood pressure) to less intense.  Orange is a more relaxed version of red, and dark grey fades easily into the background.  For Orange, I used the Color.DARK_ORANGE constant in TOS which seems to pop visually more on the screen than shows in the graphic.

Also, this color scheme seems to fit in nicely with the LBR Paint bars, and the whole combination looks and feels nice, particularly against the black background.  The new color scheme will be included in my next release of the Fib Lines indicator in late 2015 or early 2016.

BTW the chart shown here is ATVI - Activision Blizzard on the NASDAQ which is my single largest stock holding at the moment.   According to TC2000, it has a 5-year earnings growth rate of 28% and a PE of 25 which means its reasonably priced on a fundamental basis.  That plus an all-time high in the shares makes me a buyer.

Happy Holidays and all the best to you and your family.

Fiblines make music

Welcome back Traders and Wealth Builders.

With this blog post, I am hard at work on my next quarterly release of the Fiblines indicator.  It should be due out in late 2015 or early 2016.

I was surprised to to find that my interpretation for Apple Computer - the single largest capitalization stock out there - was out of date and ready for a refresh.  My new interpretation is shown on the left on a weekly chart.

Updating the levels is a lot of work, but also very gratifying when you find the right interpretation. When you see how prices react to the lines, it just 'clicks'.  It can be likened to art or music, when it works, it feels right on multiple levels.

Here is a few other things I have been up to recently related to the Thinkorswim platform:

- Add time frames for the 39 minute and 78 minute bars.

The reason for this is there are 390 minutes in the trading day and 39 minutes is a multiple as is 78.  And since much of the trading world uses 5, 15 and 60 minute bars, this will give you a leg up on market direction in the intermediate time frames

- Add the LBR paint bars to your charts

This indicator is named after Linda Bradford Rashke a former floor trader and market pro.  I could do an entire blog post on these bars, but they really speak for themselves.  In fact the combination of Fib Lines and LBR Paint bars make your charts a thing of beauty, check it out.

Here's a cool feature of Thinkorswim I just found today.  Bring up TOS on 2 separate computers side by side.  Bring up a chart on one and watch what happens on the other - cool!

Finally (and not related specifically to Thinkorswim) I signed up for BIAS - The Bruce Income Advisory Service from the Simpler Options Web site.   Bruce is a former Hedge Fund Manager and has been managing money professionally for several years.  He aims for 10-20% for year which is a lot less than the 200% plus returns produced by Carter.  But unlike Carter, he tells you everything he does with specific trade parameters and opening and closing values.

BIAS costs $97 per month and I paid for the first month's service with 1 trade on 1 contract lasting less than 10 days.  That trade was not typical and his trades usually last closer to 30 days.  But since I joined, I did my first Butterfly, and my first Calendar both of which were closed this past week at a small profit for that set of trades. But we have some other trades on for December expiry which are looking good.  I feel like I'm finally on right track to growing my wealth using options versus my prior experience which has been hit or miss.  Time will tell.

Finally, you can get my Fib Lines lines indicator for Thinkorswim - while they are still free.  Just send an e-mail to fx-mon@yahoogroups.com.

Thanks for reading and have a great week.

More Facebook Fiblines

Welcome Back Traders.

Its been a wild few weeks in financial markets. One of my favorite stocks Facebook had a wild ride after earnings, rallying from the high 90's at my last post up to the upper snow line just south of 110.

Recall this was one of the potential stopping points from my blog post FB Breakout - Again.

Since then noticed how Facebook bounced off the white line at 109.75 (within 8 cents) then sold off down to the lower red line at 100.45 (within 2 cents) then bounced hard.

I used this information to sell against the upper part of the range, and buy into the lower end of the range.  The trades were not perfectly executed by any means.  But it shows the power of the Fib Lines in predicting support and resistance levels ahead of time.

FYI - you can get my Fib Lines lines indicator for Thinkorswim for free, just send an e-mail to fx-mon@yahoogroups.com.

Take care and good trading.

FB Breakout - Again

Welcome Back traders.

We saw a major breakout in many tech stocks last week and the market is once again on fire to the upside.

As you know one of my favorites is Facebook.  Let's try to get an idea of where this move might run its course using 2 different methods.

First lets look at the Fib lines.  With this past week's action, we breached the 161% line at $100.47.  That opens up a move to the next upper white lines at 105.23 and 109.74.  These levels might be the end of the move, or might be just places along the way where prices are deflected back.

The next most important upside level is the next green line overhead at 115.49.

As for the 2nd method, let's try a Fibonacci Extension of the recent high to low move from 99.25 to the recent low at 72.  I did some quick research on whether to us the wick high and lows to measure the move, or to use the high and low of the real body of the candle.  The answer I got is that it doesn't matter which you use just, be consistent.  In other words, if you use the wick high (as I did here) use the wick low and not the real body low.

In either case, we find the 61% of the recent move ends at $115.71 which is all all the far from the upside tree line at $115.49.  No one knows where the move will end of course, but those levels are my best guess.  Facebook earnings are coming up 11/4/2015.

FYI - you can get my Fib Lines lines indicator for Thinkorswim for free, just send an e-mail to fx-mon@yahoogroups.com.

Have a great week ahead.

FB Breakout

Welcome back traders.

One of my favorite stocks and largest individual stock position is in Facebook.

After weaving back and forth pretty well with the confines of the Fib lines, it seems likely we are going to get a re-test back to the recent all-time high at 99.24.  After that, the next most likely target is the 161% line overhead at about 100.47. Next earnings coming up on 11/4.

I also started a new position this past week in Selective Insurance ticker symbol SIGI.  This symbol popped up on my "New High, Positive Growth Low PE" scan.  With a 5-year earnings growth rate of 27%, a PE of about 12 and a 1.6% yield, the fundamentals are outstanding.

As for the general market, it looks like we have turned the corner and we are not going to get a re-test of the August 24th lows.  So its full steam ahead for the Santa Claus Rally and we can starting building wealth once again.

FYI - you can get my Fib Lines lines indicator for Thinkorswim for free, just send an e-mail to fx-mon@yahoogroups.com.

Have a great week ahead.

Waiting out the Bear

Welcome back traders.

Well it was a nasty September and we are about halfway through the seasonal rough period for stocks.  If course it could get nasty any time with stocks, but its statistically more likely to occur during September and October.   As a mostly long-side investor, it was downright ugly at times.  Here are a few tips to help you get through it:

1) Look for Strength

As Cramer likes to say, there's always a bull market somewhere.  And for me the action seems to be in high growth stocks.  Autozone (AZO) is one such example, its up 28% for the year and looks unstoppable.  And check out how well is has been reacting to the Fib lines.

Another favorite is Facebook.  I use it every day and I don't think this is a better run social media company on the planet. It is also obeying the Fiblines very nicely and it seems like just a matter of time before it re-tries the 161% red line just over head at about 100.6.  This was a point of resistance above which is partially obscured by the chart label in the upper-left hand corner of the chart.  Facebook has become a monster and I think it has plenty of upside ahead.

2) Consider your alternatives

With interest rates so low, Stocks continue to be the only place to be.  Sure cash is safe, but it doesn't earn you anything and in the long term, high cash levels will eat into your account growth which is a negative.  Remember, a large portion of long term stock returns come in dividends, and you don't get paid unless you are holding the shares or the ETF.

3) Remind yourself of the fundamentals

Keep in mind that individual stocks only report earnings 4 times per year. Sure stocks are thrashed about by the general market, but this causes them to become mis-priced with respect to the the fundamentals.  But don't let the day to day fear and greed to distract you from the fundamentals behind your favorite stock or even the general market.

4) Turn off the monitor.

Several times the past several weeks, I just turned off the monitor because I could not take the pain.  But I know that (as sure as the earth turns) that the worst of it is going to be over a few short weeks.

By the way, you can get my Fib lines indicator for Thinkorswim for free, just send an e-mail to fx-mon@yahoogroups.com.

Have a great week and hang in there.

Embrace the Bear

Welcome back Active Traders and Wealth Preservers.  In case you haven't been paying attention, we have a major bearish setup developing in the markets.

Most media outlets consider 10% to be a correction. By that measure and from their tops,  SPY is down -9.87%,  DIA is down -12.2% and QQQ is down -10.6%.  But that's just from the top, On a year to date basis, SPY is down 6%, DIA is down -12% and QQQ is down a mere -1.09%.  Not such a big deal, right?

Things get ominous however when you look at the weekly chart which shows a downside break of the ascending trend line formed off the lows set back in 2011.  And immediately after that (it's tough to see but trust me), prices spike lower, race back up to the trend line,  then fail and turns back around to the downside.  That's where we are right now. What I am expecting next?

I expect we are going to revisit the lows set last Monday 8/24 which is about 6% down from here on the SPY and that's just getting started.  After that, the next likely target is 173 on the SPY. Looking further out I think the eventual down side target for this move is going to be the 161% line which is about 155 on the SPY.  That is down a hefty 20% from these levels and could take several weeks to reach those levels.

So what can you do about it?

1) You can raise cash if you have not already.  I am about 50% in cash at this point.

2) Buy short ETF's to offset your longs.  This may be preferable to simply selling your longs since that may trigger paying a long term capital gains tax on positions you may have been in for several years.

Use this table to find matching short exposure ETF's to offset your longs.  Note that you may have to buy a multiple of shares of the underlying to offset your exposure.  For example, if you are long 100 shares of DIA, you will need to buy 430 shares of DOG to effectively offset your long stock.

Now if you are long a bunch of ETFs (and I am long nearly every issue in this table) you may not want to put on 10 offsetting positions to offset the 10 you are long already.  You might just want to put on 1 or 2 large positions to offset your entire long side exposure. This way you can get out with just 1 or 2 trades instead of 10-12.

Another benefit of the short ETF's is that when things get really ugly, you can just close out the short ETF's and take a profit which is much easier to do psychologically then to have to enter new longs.

3) Put on some offsetting options positions.

Dan Nathan from CNBC's Options Action recommended the SBUX October Monthly 47.5/52.5 put spread for a debit of 1.0.  That trade as a max gain of 4.0 for a max loss of 1.0.  I like those and options positions with a similar risk/reward scenario.

4) Hold your nose and buy.

This would be an option for you buy and hold types.  Put in a limit order to buy SPY at 182.6 then 172.5 and finally 155.15.  This way you will scale in on the way down.  This strategy has the highest chance of success in the long term, but you will experience some pain on the downside.

Good luck in the weeks ahead.

Wow, what a week

Wow, what a week it was in the financial markets.

Let's see how my prognostications from last week held up in terms of the Fiblines.  Recall I expected we would find support at about 188 on SPY just south of the tree line.

On Monday we opened just below the 188 level and quickly plunged down to the next lowest level at the 182.5 level and bounced hard and ended up closing for the day at about 187.5.  From there, we rallied back up to the upper white line at about 195 and got deflected back down again and closed the day Tuesday at about 187.2, just below Monday's close.

Tuesday's close was the lowest close for the week from there we shot up and closed for the week just shy of the breakdown point at about 199 on the SPY. So while we violated my expectations in terms of the maximum moves, the extremes of the price moves were very well bracketed by the Fiblines lines we knew in advance.  If the chart on the left does not convince you, nothing will.

As to how I traded it, I didn't!   Instead I went into the week already with a high cash position as a result of analysis done earlier in August and detailed in my post Time to Raise Cash.  I did put on a small offsetting short position in SPY on Friday since I think we may have run our course to the upside for the short term.  In other words, I think the rally off the bottom was just a relief rally back up to the breakdown point and we have further work to do on the downside before all this is over.

As for the rest of out favorite stocks, the FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google) had big rallies of the lows of the week.  But experience tells me not to chase these rallies regardless of what the market does.  Instead, I'm going to stay on the sidelines for the next few 6-8 weeks since we have a very strong seasonal tendency for increased volatility (to the downside) between now and the last week of October.

So keep a high cash position, keep your powder dry and have a great week ahead.

SPY - How Bad is it?

Welcome back Active Traders and Wealth Builders.

Long bull markets with periods of low volatility tend to lull us into false sense of security.  This past week's carnage in the financial markets is a healthy reminder that stocks can and do go down.

The weekend gives us a chance to step back and put the declines into perspective.  So let's take a look at the biggest declines in the SPY in the past 15 years.  To this, I used a weekly chart of the SPY and the excellent trend line tool in Thinkorswim to build the following table showing the declines greater than 12% since the year 2000

Start	End	Weeks	Pct Decline	Angle
4/2000	10/2002	136	-50%	-71 Deg
10/2008	3/2009	76	-57%	-84 Deg
4/2010	7/2010	10	-16%	-83 Deg
5/2011	10/2011	23	-21%	-82 Deg

The angle of the decline is important since it shows the steepness of the move.  Just for sake of comparison, I took a look at the angle of the upward move off the lows of 2008 to the recent high and found in increased at about 66 degrees.  That is some solid evidence that stocks go down faster than they go up.

Now let's look at a table of the current decline assuming it ends now - which I don't think it will.

Start	End	Weeks	Pct Decline	Angle
5/2015	8/2015	10	-7.5%	-66 Deg

To put it into perspective, we have not yet declined even 10% from the recent high in SPY!  So I expect we have further to go to the downside before we find some support.  How much further you may ask?  Let's take a look at voodoo to concoct a few likely scenarios, along with some advice as to how to play it.

The chart above shows a weekly chart of the SPY.  The lowest red line on the chart is the 161% move off the lows of 2008 at about 155 on the SPY which also corresponds to the highs set in March of 2000 and September of 2007.

Most of the meaningful declines since 2008 cross 3 voodoo boundaries before finding support.   If that plays out in this case,  I expect we will find support at about 188 on the SPY which is the green line just south of 190 on the chart.   That would be about a 12% pullback which is about another 4.5% to the downside from Friday's close.

As to how to play it, here is my advice:

1) Don't sell into a panic

For those of us who are careful with our money, the dollar losses is these moves can be staggering. Its easy to panic and sell at the worst possible time.  Don't let the dollar figures freak you out.  Instead, turn off the monitor, go for a walk and look at the big picture.

2) Don't buy the first dip

If you were looking a buying a great stock like Facebook, you might be tempted to jump in early in the decline and pick it up a bargain prices, right?  Don't fall for this, you will probably get a better entry later, see #3.

3) Stay on the sidelines and wait for it!

Don't base any buying decisions on a single day's action.  You won't pick the bottom since they typically occur on large one-day capitulation-type moves to the downside.  Instead wait for a few days confirmation that the market has found its footing before changing to a bullish mindset. Remember bottoms take time to form and don't try to be a hero and pick the bottom, particularly this early in a decline.

Seasonally speaking, the odds of a decline being over don't occur until the 3rd week of October. So I expect we are relatively early in this bear cycle.

A much better play from here is to wait for a rip-the-shorts-heads-off rally up the breakdown point at 200 in the SPY before entering some bearish positions.

4) Look at the bigger picture

Pull up a weekly or monthly chart to see how far we have come off the bottom.  This decline is not that bad and I expect it will get worse before it gets better.  So keep your powder dry, and cash on the sidelines, because I expect you will get a better entry point in the future.

Have a great week ahead.

Time to Raise Cash

Welcome Back Active Traders and Wealth Builders.

One of the things I have learned from all of my years of investing and trading is that it doesn't pay to fight the market.  Put another way, if the stock market is in retreat generally, odds are against making money on the long side in stocks.  Sure you might find a few stocks or sectors making new all-time highs, but they will be few and far between.   During these times, you hard eared assets are better just sitting in cash.

In his classic book 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator' author Edwin Lefevre made a strong impression about observing general conditions.  Taking a cue from the author, here are my top reasons why I have the highest levels of cash I have had all year.

5) Market Breadth is Declining

Recent all-time highs in the SPY have not been confirmed by the broader market.  The chart on the right shows a weekly chart of SPY for the past 2 years versus the T2107 which is a proprietary Worden indicator measuring the percent of stocks above their 200 day price moving average.  You can clearly see a divergence between the SP-500 price and the percent of stocks above their 200 day moving average.

Keep in mind this is not a particularly new phenomenon and looking at the same chart for the past 10 years, the T2107 peaked back in mid-2009 at nearly 94% and currently stands at about 39%.  In practice this means fewer stocks are taking the market higher and you know who they are, AAPL, AMZN and NFLX to name a few.

4) USD remains strong

The US dollar remains strong and is up about 7% for the year and up about 20% in the past 2 years as measured by the Dollar Index DXY.  This is a mixed blessing since it makes our exports more expensive, but it makes the dollar buy more when US citizens travel abroad.  Where is really hurts is the earnings of US-based multi-nationals who make a large portion of their sales outside the US.  When those overseas earnings have to be translated back to the USD, the currency conversion cuts into profits.   A strong dollar also makes Oil and Energy cheaper since its priced in USD which leads us to #3.

3) Oil and Commodities

Oil and Commodities in general have been in major bear markets, in part due a strong USD.  In fact this past week oil prices actually pierced (to the downside) the lows made during the Financial Crisis of 2008.  As an oil consumer, I love this trend because energy is one of the non-negotiable expenses of modern living and every drop in the price means more money I have to spend for other things. In fact, your humble blog author filled up his car (along with his portable gas can) this past week in Irvington, NJ for $2.18 a gallon cash! 

Keep in mind that gasoline prices are very much a regional item.  A quick look at the national Gas Price heat map here shows that the Chicago area and most of the state of California have the highest prices in the country due in part to issues in refineries in the region.

So what does all this have to do with stock prices?  The fact is about 30% of the SP-500 are energy companies and low energy prices do not help earnings of these companies.  Take a look at long term charts of the Select Energy ETF (XLE) and SPY and you will see how closely correlated that the price of energy stocks are to the overall market.

2) China

The Chinese market as measured by FXI has had a spectacular round trip in 2015 rallying as much as 28% from late 2014 levels, just to give it all back.

To say Chinese government has an awkward relationship with Capitalism is putting it mildly.  They
like the positives of market economies, growth and development and rising standard of living.  They also like a rising stock market, but don't like when it goes down.  So how does the Chinese government react to a falling market?  They order people and companies to buy and prevent then from selling.  This of course defeats one of the major benefits of investing in stocks to being with which is their liquidity.  In the course of this fiasco, they have destroyed the faith of the people in the market.  And it will take a long time to rebuild this faith given the fact that the Chinese public has little experience with stocks to begin with.

Now you could easily make the case that what goes on in China has a limited affect on the US.  After all, the US markets didn't follow the Chinese market up and therefore should not follow it down.  But the fact is that many large US companies (for example APPL and QCOM) get a large portion of their sales from China and a defensive consumer in China does not bode well for future earnings growth.  Plus the world is more interconnected than ever and stock prices around the globe are highly correlated.

1) Seasonality

Its well known that stock prices typically suffer their biggest losses in September and October.  I did a detailed study in seasonality back in 2013 in my post Evidence of Autumn.   The bottom line was that stocks to tend to decline in the fall, but guess what?  They almost always end up higher for the year in the rally that follows between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Granted stocks sometime rally in September and you may see a marginal new high in the SPY between now and the end of September.  But don't buy into that rally, wait for things to get ugly in October and then buy when you see a close above the high of the low bar in your favorite stock or index.

0) The Fed

In all my years of playing the markets, I have never seen a Fed this easy for this long.  Interest rates as measured by the Fed Funds rate have effectively been zero for the past 8 years.  To see how extraordinary this is, look at this chart here http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/.  Of course, stocks love low rates which explains why they have done so well, effectively tripling since the lows of the Financial Crisis.

Now after years of speculation, it appears the Fed is ready to start raising rates in September.  In fact, many have argued that the Fed has been too easy for too long and that an interest rate increase will actually signal the Fed has more faith in the economy and trigger a rally in stocks!  But the rally will likely be short lived because higher rates are not a positive for stocks.

Overall, I don't want to give the impression of being bearish on stocks or the economy.  I'm only suggesting that if you have some gains, take some profits and raise some cash.  You will likely get  better entry point in the next few months.

That's all for now, enjoy the fruits of your labors and have a great week ahead.

Active-Trader - Flash Boys

Welcome back, Active Traders and Wealth Builders.

I'm back from a week of sailing the high seas and had a chance to read Michael Lewis's book Flash Boys.  It was an excellent read and an eye-opener as to how you can be taken advantage of when trading on-line.

Here's a quick overview of what I learned and how you can protect yourself.  There are many types of algorithmic trading going on in the market place. What surprised me is how much of it occurs with little or no risk being assumed by those trading against you.  And it explains why many market-making firms pay the brokers for order flow.  Its because when a trading firm has your order to buy or sell in hand, they have the opportunity to transact elsewhere or at a different price and use your order to offset it.

There are 3 of the most basic type of high-frequency trading HFT trading scenarios:

- Front Running - You place an order to buy 1000 shares of a stock.  The first hundred goes off at close to the spread and the HFT firm goes out immediately (and I mean microseconds) goes out and buys up the available shares on the remaining exchanges driving up the price just to turn around and sell them back to the original buyer at a now higher price.   This gives the HFT firm a small but relatively guaranteed profit.

Front running successful requires physical proximity to the exchange computer since the advantage requires the minimal amount of delay between receipt of the order and execution.  HFT firms pay dearly for this proximity.

- Rebate Aribitrage  - As mentioned above many retail brokers (including the ones I use) receive payment for order flow.  Some exchanges will rebate the firms who send them orders versus charge them which is the standard arrangement.  Rebate Arbitrage occurs when the firm sends your order where they get paid the highest rebate.  BTW the only broker I am aware of which does not accept payment for order flow is Interactive Brokers.

- Slow Market Arbitrage - This method involves monitoring the difference between prices on various exchanges and transacting on one then making offsetting transactions on other exchanges who are slow to update their quotations.

You might think all of this was impossible due to regulation NMS which requires that all transactions be executed at the "NBBO" or National Best Bid or Offer among the available exchanges.   To implement regulation NMS, all of the prices from the various exchanges are aggregated at the SIP - Security Information Processor.   What was unforeseen was that other non-public versions of the SIP data exists on the computers of the high frequency trading firms inside the exchanges which get a first look the data and have a time advantage in terms of how to use the data to their advantage.

Now granted I don't trade that much, so I am not particularly outraged about this arrangement.  Things are still much better now than they were back in the bad old days when a commission of $14.95 for 100 shares was considered a 'Deep Discount Broker'.  Now I can trade the same 100 shares for $1 through TradeStation with a bid-ask spread measured in pennies.

So what's the take away, how to protect yourself and your hard earned money?

1) Use Limit Orders

This one is so obvious and Cramer also preaches this same mantra.  When you put in a market order, you are essentially telling the market maker and HFT firms - here, take my money!  Instead, put in a limit order under the market or in the middle of the spread.  You might still get HFT'd, but at least you got can transact on your terms and not someone else's.

2) Use Market on Close orders.

Large investors avoid these issues by using "Market on Close" orders which is a special match up of buyers and sellers which occurs on the close at the New York Stock exchange.  Why would anyone want to get just an "average" execution?   Just to avoid this entire mess and when you are a large institution with a lot of average investors, average executions work just fine.

3) Transaction with IEXG.

If you have a platform which allows you to route orders to a particular exchange,  send your orders to IEXG.  That is the Market Participant ID (MPID) for the IEX Group which is the exchange formed by Brad Katsuyama who is one of the heroes of the book.  The exchange was created, and at a great personal and professional cost to Mr Katsuyama, to create a fair exchange for buyers and sellers to transact.

4) Start following VIRT

If you can't beat them, join them as the saying goes.  One HFT firm which was identified in the book which is publicly traded is Virtu Financial ticker VIRT.   This company came public back in May of 2015 at about $23 a share and has trade as high as about $24.70 and currently stands about $23.50.  The company is a market maker and liquidity provider.  It's unclear how much of their income comes from market making versus HFT activity, so more research is required.

Thanks again to Michael Lewis for an excellent read.  And have a great week ahead.

AMZN, FB, NFLX, GOOG - breakout palooza

Welcome back Active Traders and Wealth Builders.

It was a great week to be an investor, worries about Greece and a signed Nuclear deal with Iran gave the markets a reason to cheer and cheer they did.

We had spectacular breakouts in AMZN, FB, NFLX and GOOG.  Most of these symbols respected the Fib lines nicely.

I had my eye on NFLX post earnings, and was able to trade it due to knowledge of the 161% line. I noted at the time the way price reacted to the line and traded accordingly by selling puts at the 108 strike. As it turns out, it was pretty close to the low of the which was was 107.68 and the 161% line was at 107.75.  Close enough for government work as they say.

And therein lies the answer to a common question about Fiblines.  How do you know which lines the stock will respect in advance?  The answer is,you don't, but the price action itself will often give you the clues you need to take advantage.

Facebook also rocked out to new all-time highs and the next target is the 161% line at about 100.49 where I expect it to make it too this coming week after earnings.

Overall, keep in mind that the 161% line is relatively low in the fib sequence and long term, I expect Facebook shares to go much, much higher.

Have a great week ahead.

Trading around Facebook

Welcome Back, Traders and Wealth Builders.

Readers of my blog know I have been a fan of Facebook for some time.  After many months of sideways action, Facebook finally broke out to new all times highs in the past few weeks.   Recall from my prior post FB Breakout back in March of 2015, I recalculated Fib Levels and came up with what you see on the left.

As the move ran its course, I realized that prices topped out right at the green line at the 89.28 level - or within 12 cents of the level I calculated back in March!   Well I took that as a hint and closed half of my position in the lower 88's and at a nice profit.  Then as the stock came in and found resistance at the lower snow line about 86  I bought back my Facebook shares sold about 2 points higher.

Needless to say, I am finding the fib levels to be a big help trading around a core position in Facebook.

In the past few days, I have been hard at work updating fib levels for several key stocks that have exceeded the 423% level which is the end of the voodoo sequence.  These updates include key stocks suck as AMZN, NFLX, NTES, REGN and TSLA.

Unlike prior posts, I'm not going to reveal the levels here, but I will save the details for those who get the indicator free from my Yahoo Group.  You can get my Fiblines indicator for Thinkorswim for free, just send an e-mail to fx-mon@yahoogroups.com.

Good luck and good trading.

More Fib Lines

Welcome back traders.  I had another decent week trading with the help of the Fib Lines lines.  Here are few examples to whet your appetite.

First up is AMBA.  I didn't trade this one but I was tempted to sell a call spread earlier in the week when it approached then exceeded that gray line at about 120.  I decided not to step in front of that freight train and the stock ran away to the upside  Note however that it paused and turned back at the 423% line right at about 127.


Next up is AET.  Recall I traded this one in my prior post week and sold my calls right at the red line at about 120.05.  This week I noticed that the stock popped up through that old resistance level and quickly moved up to the 123 area.  At that point, I figured the stock would go higher but was not exactly sure how high.  So I did a conservative trade and sold the 120/122 put spread for a credit of 0.7 and got filled on a pullback.  That trade went out at max profit since the stock closed just above 124.

Next up is GILD.  I had a monthly 118 call expiring this Friday for which I paid about $2.20.  As the stock rallied up above the 120 level, I had my limit order in and sold the contract at $2.60 since I noticed there was a grey voodoo line right at the 120.50 level.  The stock traded well above that and up as high as $121.78.  But it closed the week at $119.78 so in retrospect, my exit at 120.60 was not so bad.  That is one of the reasons I like the tool because it gives you a target and sometimes when a stock is moving in your favor, the last thing you want to do is take profits but that's exactly what you should be doing.

Last up is China Biologics symbol CBPO.  I didn't trade this one either this past week, but recall that I took profits when the stock got deflected at the 423% line after making an unexpected rip to the upside.  The stock traded down as low as $100 before finding support more or less at the tree line at $99.04. Then the stock made a decent recovery and then traded all the way back up and was turned back once again very close to the 423% line at 120.37.  The high for the day was 120.39 just 2 cents from the Fibline.  I don't know about you, but I consider that to be pretty amazing considering thee levels were known ahead of time.

In summary - and I know I have said this before - I think Fiblines are the most amazing discovery in my 30+ years trading the markets.  What's also amazing is that others charge $1000 plus $50 a month for this indicator, yet I give it away completely for free.

To get your hands on the free Fib Lines indicator for Thinkorswim, send an e-mail to:

fx-mon-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Enjoy your weekend.

Fiblines for SPDR's and Health Care

Welcome back loyal blog readers.

Things are starting to click for your humble blog author. Twice this past week I had profitable option trades where I exited at Fib levels I knew ahead of time.  One of them was Aetna (AET) which you can see of the chart on the left.  I bought on the breakout of the prior high at about 116 and sold just 3 days later when the stock was 120.5.  And just like magic the stock pulled back.

The other was was GILD which didn't pull back with quite the same predictability, but it didn't matter.  I took profits and moved on.

In an effort so share the wealth, I am ramping up my efforts to offer you free Fibline levels on a new set of symbols.

First up are the Select Sector SPDR's shown in the graphic here.   Overall I'm not a fan of these tradables but I do use them for exposure to sectors I don't have at lot of familiarity with, for example XLE for Energy and XLB for materials. I avoid it for sectors I have a handle on such as technology. This graphic shows the symbols for which I have now developed Fibline levels.

Next up is the health care sector and insurers.  This sector has been on fire lately and includes such household names such as CVS, AET, CB, CI and HUM.  I have made some money on AET, CI and another Chinese Biotech company called CBPO.  In fact, I just sold CBPO this past week as it approached the 423% Voodoo level and it was my biggest winner of the year.

I also added Fibline levels for a handful other interesting symbols such as CMT, CSX, DNKN and MA.  I will be sending out those updates to members of my Yahoo group shortly.  If you want to get your hands on free Fib lines indicator for TOS send an e-mail to:

fx-mon-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Enjoy the fruits of your labors and have a great weekend.

BABA - Change of Character

Welcome back, Traders and Wealth Builders.

Back in September of 2014, Chinese Internet retailer Alibaba (BABA) went public in what was the largest IPO of all time at least in terms of market capitalization.  After a nervous opening day (perhaps due to the previously botched IPO with Facebook) BABA opened in the 85 range and soon rallied all the way up to the 120 area.

After that it was a slow grind down and BABA disappointed many initial investors.  Earnings have been decent, but the prospect of ongoing litigation regarding not doing enough to stop the selling of counterfeit goods as weighed on the shares.  And your humble blog author lost some money on the shares, looking for a low around 90 but washing out in the high 80's once the shares broke down.

But things changed when the company reported earnings back on 5/7/2015.  Not only did earnings beat estimates by almost 100%, the issues around litigation seem to be resolved.  Since then there has been a steady stream of good news including a partnership between AAPL and BABA.  Add to that the fact that fellow internet retailer AMZN shares have been on a rip to the upside along with the rest of the market.

Taking a look at the voodoo, BABA still has yet to make it back to the top of Elliot Wave 1 at $100. I traded some call option and sold a put spread this past week (Carter would be proud) and had one of my best option trades of the year. As for now, I have no position, but I expect BABA has some further upside at a minimum up to the top of Wave 1 at $100.  A pullback to the breakout point at $90 would provide a good opportunity for re-entry.

Have a great memorial day holiday and a great week ahead.

FB, Amazon and Netflix Revisited

Welcome back traders and Wealth Builders.

In my prior blog post, I covered these same 3 stocks, FB, AMZN and NFLX.  But they are so interesting, and respect the Fib levels so nicely, the trio is worth another look.

First up in Facebook.  After reaching a new all-time high back on March 24 the stock has been in retreat.  This past week is found support just 10 cents from the white line at 76.95.

Obviously this stock has under performed recently.  But sometimes, the long-term trend trumps any short-term weakness and I remain fully positioned to the long side and have not sold any shares.


Next up is AMZN. After an upside earnings surprise, the stock ripped out to a new all-time high gapping past the 423% line. In my prior post, commented that I expected the stock to fill the gap before resuming its uptrend.  But instead, notice how the stock came down and kissed the 423% line then headed straight higher.

I have no position in AMZN, but I am starting to rethink the company.  It's not so much about earnings per share. Its about the dominant affect this company is having on retailing.  Amazon is disrupting traditional retailing and creating entire new economizes where they facilitate business.

I recently listened to a presentation by a John Carter friend who described how he sets up businesses to sell things on Amazon.  He selects the products and has the manufactured and shipped to Amazon who handles the fulfillment and shipping.  He never has to handle the the inventory and his risk is limited more or less the price he paid for the inventory.   Of course he was also selling a course and mentor ship for $5000 where you could learn to do the same.  I passed on that of course, but the impression is made was palpable.

Think about this for a second.  If you wanted to buy something, and knew more or less what you wanted, why not buy it on Amazon?  Up there there is the worlds single largest collection of sellers competing for your business on price and user feedback. And when you are done, you point and click your way to fulfillment.  And with the prospect of Amazon Prime (which includes free shipping) I can see more and more people do business on Amazon.  To summarize, its not about earnings its about market share.  I have no current position in AMZN, but will be watching as the stock approaches the previous high.

Last up is NFLX.  After an upside earning surprise the stock has been consolidating just under the tree line at 574.60.   But it seems determined to make a break to the upside and once it does, the next green line is overhead at 606.  That's neatly a $30 move and could pay off quite well on a small (1 lot) option position.

To summarize, here are 3 fascinating and disruptive companies with the shares all within striking distance of new all-time highs.  Watch them carefully and pounce when the time is right.

And have a great week ahead.

FB, Amazon and Netflix

Welcome back Traders and Wealth Builders.

We saw some historic new highs this past week, particularly in in the Nasdaq Composite which blew out to new all time highs on the heels of huge moves in AMZN and NFLX.

It was a huge week for earnings.  As is ever the case in economics, its a winner-take-all situation.  Once a stock exceeds its expected move into earnings, its off to the races as those positioned against the move rush in to cover their short positions.  And we saw text moves in AMZN and NFLX the prior week.

As for Facebook, it was a pretty tame affair, and the option sellers made out nicely on that trade. Speaking of Facebook, notice how well the Fiblines have been containing the price action. I'm still long the shares and in it for the long haul.

As for AMZN, it blew through the 423% red line at 412.94 and ran up to 445.  That provides and opportunity to recalculate the Fib lines for AMZN.  But I'm not in a hurry to do that since I expect the price will return to the point of the breakout before advancing further.

The company did report a profit and estimates for future earnings are looking promising.  But this company does not have a history of growing earnings, so I'll believe it when I see it.

Nearly any way you look at it, its been a fantastic environment to grow your wealth in the stock market.

If you want to get your hands on free Fiblines indicator for TOS send an e-mail to:

fx-mon-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Good trading and have a great week.

Fib Lines go International

Welcome back traders.

One key theme which is producing some good returns so far this year is international markets. Take a look at the graphic on the left and you can see that symbols like EEM, EFA and FXI have under performed their US counterparts over 2 year and 5-year time horizons.

But on a year to date basis, note how these key international ETF's are outperforming comparable US markets. Now that Europe has figured out that QE works, those markets have a lot of catching up to do.  So along those lines, I thought it would be a good time to visit Fib Lines for some key international items.

First up in the US Dollar as measured by the dollar index which is up about 20% in the past 3 months
after breaking out to a new 10-year high back in December of 2014.

I found the beginning of Elliot Wave 1 at the low at 70.69 and the high at 89.5 which was an area of resistance going as far back as 2006.  Since then the tree lines have been doing a fairly good job bracketing the price action.  Note the next major point of resistance is the 161% red line up at 101.15.   I also added the US Dollar Index futures /DX which has a very similar interpretation.

Next up are key international ETF's EEM and EFA.  Both are up nearly 10% year to date,  Both ETF's have similar interpretations as most US markets putting in the bottom and top of wave 1 between March and June of 2009.

Next up is FXI, the iShares China Large Cap ETF.  This index was up about 10% as of the end of March and has since then ripped up to a series of new 4 then 10 year highs.  As of now, FXI is up nearly 23% for the year and looking at the longer term chart, has higher to go to the upside with no serious resistance until up in the 54 area.

I struggled mightily with this chart over a period of days and could not find an interpretation that made any sense.  I finally settled the setup as shown in this monthly chart with supporting points as follows:

- Start of wave 1 is at the low at 20.90 set back in 2008

- End of wave 1 is at 31.27 which has been a point of support several times since then

- Price tagged the 261% line and were deflected back

In the past 6-7 years price seems to have more or less pivoted around the 161% line finding resistance at the overhead tree line.  Once price took out the 261% line at 48.05, it was off to the races to the upside.  I still expect higher prices ahead and I am long via the June 47 calls.

Finally, I added support for the Dow Indexes $DJI (Industrials) $DJT (Transports) and $DJU (Utilities) at the request of a group member.

If you want to get your hands on free Fib lines indicator for TOS send an e-mail to:

fx-mon-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Good trading and may the odds be ever in your favor.

Fib Lines for Futures

Hi Traders and Welcome Back.

Things are moving along well with my Yahoo Group and membership has grown about 20% in the past month or so.  It seems like word of the Fib Lines indicator is starting to spread and I think its great.  Keep it coming and please let your trading friends know and ask them to join the group to get updates.

At the urging of a some new members I have added support for a handful of futures with continuous contracts as follows:

/ES - E-Mini S&P 100

/EMD  E-Mini Midcap 400

/YM - Mini Dow Jones Industrials

/TF - Russell 2000 Index Mini

/NQ - E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index

/CL - Light Sweet Crude Futures

/GC - Gold Futures

Most of these products are based on the major stock indices. So the interpretations were all highly similar to their ETF counterparts which bottomed at the depths of financial crisis in 2008 and put in the end of Wave 1 in March or April of 2010.

The only chart that gave me some trouble was /CL - Crude Oil Futures.  After some struggle I came up with the following which you can see on the left.

Recall that crude had an incredible spike up to nearly $150 a barrel in June of 2008 just to crash all the way down to a low of about $33 a barrel just a short 6 months later.

What was interesting is where prices held after that crash which was just about $35.  Going back in time, it turns out that price level has been an important point of resistance all the way back to the year 2000!

So I ended Wave 1 at the $35 area and the result is what you see above which shows the entire sequence of lines.  Not shown on the chart is the beginning and end of wave 1 which started in 2000 at $11.05 and and ended in 2009 at $35.6.

What leads me to think this interpretation is correct?

- Note that the high of $150 clearly exceeded the 423% line to the upside (-1)

- Note how the low at $35 corresponds to the 100% line at the top of wave 1 (+1)

- Note how the prices then rallied back up to the 423% line and were turned back (+1)

- After that, prices dropped back down to the 261% line and bounced (+1)

So that provides enough votes (in my mind anyway) to favor the above interpretation.  Based on this, its fair to say that oil seems to show a high degree long term price memory with levels being respected which go far back as 15 years.

The new version of the Fib lines indicator for TOS will be available on my Yahoo group on Sunday 4/2/2015.   If you want to join the group, please send an e-mail to:

fx-mon-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Enjoy the rest of your weekend

CBM - Bounce off the Red Line

Here are my Fiblines levels for Cambrex Biosciences, ticker symbol CBM.  This stock popped up on my "New High, Positive Earnings, Low PE" scan.

Note how after running up to new highs, it pulled back to the red line and bounced.

This company also has excellent fundamentals with a 5 year earnings growth rate of 45% and a PE of 21.  Cramer says you can pay up to 2x the growth rate which would be a PE of 90 which would mean the stock could quadruple from here.

I am not quite that optimistic, but the stock was recently upgraded by a broker with a price target of $50.  I am long the shares in anticipation of higher prices ahead.

Twitter Breakout with Fiblines

Big day in TWTR today with an upside break of a trend line on the weekly which has been in force since December of 2013.  So this is a significant trend change signal and I'm hanging on for higher prices ahead.

Next resistance is at the green line at 54.75 just short of the recent top.

Active-Trader - Fiblines in SPY

Here are Fibline levels in SPY as of 3/23/2015.  For now we are paused at the 261% line at about 210.

Active-Trader - FB Breakout

Welcome back Active Traders.

After many months of sideways action, one of my favorite long-term holds FB (Facebook) finally broke out to a new all-time high this past week.

As you know, I have been a fan of Facebook - the service and the stock - for quite some time. This story is one of those rare confluences when my first hand experience with a product becomes an investment thesis and makes money.  It doesn't happen all that often, but when it does it can be rewarding.

The chart above shows my interpretation of the Fiblines for Facebook as well.  Recall from my prior blog post here that I had an earlier interpretation for FB which showed the entire Fib sequence terminating at the 423% line at about $80.89.  That area served as resistance for some time, but once it was breached, I reconsidered the levels and came up with the new interpretation which is shown above.

Note how the tree line at 80.51 served as resistance for some time but was finally breached decisively to the upside this past week.  From there we can see the a number of levels above with minor snow lines at 83.30 and 85.86 and the next tree line at 89.28.  After that, the next major fire line is overhead at $100.45.  That fire line is only the 161.5% move of the original wave 1 so I think Facebook will eventually go much, much higher.

Some of the price action this past week has to do with news that you will soon be able to send money through Facebook.  As I have said previously, its only a matter of time before we will be making phone calls and video calls through Facebook.  We already use is as a messaging platform and it allows me to stay in touch with people in ways I never could before.  Facebook owns 100% of Instagram which serves a much younger demographic than FB and has yet to monetized.

As for the Fiblines, recall that you can get them for free for Thinkorswim for free, just send an e-mail to fx-mon@yahoogroups.com.

Have a great weekend and week ahead.

Active-Trader - What is your Time Frame?

Welcome back, Active Traders.

Active Trading involves so many decisions - what to trade, when to enter, when to exit and why.  At first glance, it seems like almost an almost insurmountable number of decisions - clearly more than enough to boggle the mind of even the most rational individual.   So let's examine just one angle of that decision - what time frame should you be trading?

Before you consider trading anything in any time frame, examine the multi-time frame view.  The chart in the upper left shows my "Active Trader" tab in TradeStation which shows the Weekly, Daily and 39 minute time frame for anything which I consider trading.  Before entering a trade ask yourself these questions:

- What is the all-time high (ATH) and all-time low (ATL) price?
- If you don't know the ATH or ATL, switch to a larger timeframe. If you don't know the ATL or ATL or when it occurred you should not be trading.
- Is the current price closer to the all-time high or the all-time low price?
- Is the price closer to an area of support or demand?
- Is the price closer to an area of resistance or supply?

Note that every area on the chart where there the stock traded previously can be considered an area of support (where buyers will enter) or resistance (where sellers will enter).   Consider your entry price versus and whether its closer to support or resistance.

The common view of the retail trader is to buy when prices are going up and sell when the prices are going down.  Compare and contrast this with the common view of the institutional trader who will buy when prices come down to an area of value (stock is cheap) and sell when prices rise to the area of supply (stock is expensive or fairly valued).  Point is that regardless of what time frame you trade, you need to understand the bigger picture so that you don't buy at resistance (supply) or sell at support (demand).

The only exception I would make to the above statement is when the stock moves out to an ATH or all-time high.  This is a very special and rare price area where there is no prior supply or resistance and whose chart have the best prospects of continuation to even higher prices.

With that said, let's review the common chart time frames - from smaller to larger - along with my commentary on each.

Time Frame	Commentary
5-Minute	5-minute bars are hard to trade for all but the most nimble day traders. Breakouts of the high or low of the first 5-minute bar of the day is a common day trading technique - the 5-minute Opening Range Breakout. Be careful of time trade since the first 5-minute bar is often thrown back or rejected.
15-minute	15 and 30-minute time frame are used by many novice retail traders but have the advantage of signaling moves in advance of larger time frame bars
30-minute	30-minute bar is most useful for capturing the results of the 30-minute Opening Range Breakout which occurs at 10 AM EST.
39-minute	Carter favors the 39-minute bars since they split the 6.5 hour trading day into 10 39-minute bars
60-minute	60-minute bar - while widely captured in many popular charting packages - is not as useful as the 39 or 78 minute charts
78-minute	Carter also likes the 78-minute charts since they are exactly 2x the 39 minute bars and split the the trading day into to 5 78-minute bars
Daily	Daily is a good time frame for the swing trader since you should only be making decisions once per day - preferably in the last 30-minutes of the day when most of the daily bar has already been formed.
Weekly	Weekly is a good time frame for the most conservative once-a-week type traders.  We recommend you trade this time frame in the last 30-minutes of the week when most of the weekly bar is already been formed.
Monthly and above	I don't think anyone trades in time frames above weekly.  Possible exception is pension fund managers who choose asset allocations quarterly or annually.

So are the key takeaways here?

1. Decide what type of trader you are. Swing traders should trade 39, 78 minute or daily time frames. Day traders should trade 39 minute or below time frames. 
2. Once you pick a time frame stick with it! If you enter on the signal of a daily bar (for example) don't change your exit time frame to an analysis of the 60-minute bar! This is a common mistake and I made it myself this past week. But we all make mistakes and we must learn from them 
3. Retail suckers use the common time frames - 15-minute, 30-minute or 60-minute. Professional uses the 39-minute and 78-minute charts or tick charts. Retail traders wait until after hours to see changes of direction. Professional traders note when the happen between 10 and and 2 PM. 

Bottom line is know your time-frames. Pick one that works for you and stick with it.

And have a great week ahead.

Active-Trader - Seasonal Low in Energy

Welcome back Active Traders and Wealth Builders.

Every once in a while a trend change comes along that's so obvious, those who miss it are just not paying attention.  And the recent turn in energy prices is one such example.  Let's examine the evidence.

To your left is a 24 year seasonality chart of crude oil.  Its seems pretty obvious that low point on the chart is right about mid to late February which is hopefully just about the time you are reading this blog post.

Now your first instinct might be that its time to load up on oil.  I'm not a futures trader and I don't find the leverage to be either necessary or useful.  In fact the opposite is the case, the leverage can shake you out on the slightest wiggle. I had the same experience with Forex and I find its better to just avoid highly leveraged vehicles.  The only exception would be options on equities which I can trade right out of my equities account and risk the same or a smaller amount that I would with a straight stock position in the underlying.

As for the best way to trade energy, let's break out TC2000 and examine a few alternatives include energy ETF's USO, DBO and energy equity ETF's XLE and OIH.  A look at those in the scan on the left show that OIH and XLE are actually positive for the year while energy commodity ETF's are actually down for the year.  More significant, look at the dividend yield of OIH and XLE to find a positive number versus the dividend yield for the actual commodity EFT's which is - zero.

This brings up the core problem with investing in actual commodities and that is called negative carry.  Put another way that means it costs money to hold crude oil and other energy assets.  This is reflected in term structure of future's contracts where farther dated contracts are usually priced higher than nearer dated contracts to reflect the cost of storing the commodity for delivery on that future date.  This term structure can erode the return of holding commodities over a period of time even when the price holds constant.  Take a look at performance of USO and you will see that it does a poor job of matching the overall return characteristics of crude oil due to the cost of carry and other costs such as maintaining a portfolio of future contracts to construct the index.

So what the answer?  Energy stocks of course.  Energy stocks have a positive carry as reflected in the dividend paid by the stocks themselves.  And you can see those results clearly in the returns above for the year as well as in the dividend yields themselves.  There are probably even smarter ways to trade energy like selling puts, or put spreads or selling calls against your positions to bring in extra income.  But I am not an expert on energy companies and until I get to know more will be happy to invest in energy ETF's OIH and XLE.

One more tip for you - bring up a chart of OIH inside Thinkorswim and select Style, Chart Mode, Seasonality.  You will see a chart that looks like the one on the right.  Notice how OIH starts the year at a low and then tops out some time between August and September.  There's your seasonal high and when its time to take profits.  And there you have it a way to play energy ETF's with a better than even chance of coming out ahead - particularly when you factor in the dividends.

So go out there and dump your USO and buy some XLE and OIH.

And have a great week ahead.